Friday, November 13, 2009

Afghanistan: Nothing But a Fool's Errand

For anyone trying to write about Afghanistan, the war in that ornery, cantankerous and choleric nation is one of the fastest-moving targets around.

Writing about it, like fighting it, is like playing dodge-ball with a fruit fly. Like shooting minnows in the sea. Like pitting Wile E. Coyote against the road runner -- and we all know which character the U.S. military plays in that cartoon.


Anyone who thinks the Afghan people will ever just sit down and play n
ice with Uncle Sam would make a perfect buyer for oceanfront property in Arizona.

If they could get a mortgage.

But I digress.


No wonder the White House is entertaining so many potential strategies and can't seem to pick out one good one just yet. Obama is now rightfully taking his time, weighing each option, and asking for more ideas on how to proceed.

In my humble opinion, any strategy other than withdrawal is doomed to fail. Withdrawal will also fail in its own way, of course; once we pull out, the country will revert to its natural state -- a rugged land full of fierce fighters who will train their sights away from the Yankee invaders and back onto their own people.

So why should we throw more human bodies in the form of American soldiers at an effort that cannot succeed no matter how many years and devalued dollars we invest?

Common sense plus history -- especially the comical Great Game waged between Russia and Britain there in the 19th century -- will tell us to pack up our toys and leave Afghanistan now.

Russian attempts to control the country in the 1980s also led to nothing but widows and the eventual collapse of the Soviet empire. And we need only lo
ok at British efforts to tell Americans what to do 250 years ago to know that no people want foreign troops on their soil.

And I would argue that Afghani "minutemen" are a lot tougher and more numerous than our home-grown version back then.


My brief experience in Central Asia -- where I spent five months on a US-taxpayer-funded media project in the comparatively mild-mannered Kazakhstan -- tells me that what we call corruption in America is simply the cost of doing business there. And that these nations' leaders long ago learned how to tell us what we want to hear. They know just how naive Americans can be.

So, are the endless battles and skirmishes and firefights and downed helicopters in Afghanistan helping in any way? Rumor has it that we went into Afghanistan to prevent Al Qaeda from inflicting another September 11th on America. But rumor also has it that Al Qaeda has prudently moved to Pakistan and, if 9/11 or recent events are any example, most terrorist plots can just as easily be hatched in European cities or on U.S. military bases in Texas anyway.

In fact, our presence in Afghanistan is only making matters worse, especially by helping to destabilize nuclear-bomb-owning Pakistan and to recruit young Muslims who have nothing better to do. And there are lots of young Muslims with
nothing better to do.


In the meantime, we've already pumped $144 billion dollars into Afghanistan. Apparently, that works out to a million bucks per soldier per year. And we don't save money when one of them gets killed -- we just replace him or her with a new one.

It will be no cakewalk to pull out of Afghanistan
and I, like many people, fear for those locals who aided our misguided efforts, and for the women who will surely suffer if the repressive Taliban return.

Similar arguments were used to keep us in Vietnam long after it was clear to most Americans that victory there was impossible. If the U.S. military had continued to believe an end was in sight, we would still be bom
bing rice paddies and dropping napalm on the jungle, if there were any rice paddies or jungles left.

(Maybe we should bring back the draft. That would almost guarantee an imminent withdraw
al from Afghanistan and its sister war in Iraq. Once enough American boys and girls were sent over to fight -- and not just the poor and needy -- the whole thing would be over lickety-split.)

We should never have gone on this fool's errand in the first place, and should have let the Afghans work out their internal problems themselves. But that is another story, another president, and the mistake that led to all others.

In the meantime, again, we're quibbling over how much modest proposals for health care reform might cost or how much we might have to spend to fix our mediocre educational system or to clean up our inner cities or help put Americans back to work.

America is falling apart while our bright red blood and crisp greenbacks paint and litter the barren Afghan hills.


A writer for Britain's Guardian recently compared the endless war in Afghanistan with the darkly funny movie Groundhog Day, in which Bill Murray's character must repeat the same day again and again. It is only through being forced to reexamine his life and priorities that he manages to break that vicious cycle.

Would that America do the same. Our clock, too, is ticking.

180 comments:

  1. I agree with you. I am sure there are things that I don't know but what I know from our past experience in this kind of war and of the region-I see no upside.
    Leave and call it victory.

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  2. If Kennedy did not believe in the domino theory and stayed out of Vietnam, I think my country Thailand would have gone communist for sure. I really don't think Thais or the SE Asia region would have been better under the regime.

    I have not had questions for my friends in Afghanistan before. I do now.

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  3. I spent a number of years working for the intel community (yes, I've heard all of the jokes about "military intelligence", so spare me...I've worked in three communities: academia, high performance computing and intelligence, and BY FAR the smartest people I've met have been in the intel world....it's just an amazingly difficult line of work).

    Now that I'm off of that rant, rebecca has done a really good job with this blog, and, while I basically agree that we need to get out, I also learned in my intel work how extremely complicated these issues really are. Having said that, I'm always anxious and eager to hear INTELLIGENT reasons and rationales from people who have clearly done their homework (again, kudos to rebecca), but unfortunately there seem to be too many folks commenting who have no business doing so. On the media side, that would certainly include Faux Newz (Fox News). Again, I'm glad a smart person like President Obama is making this decision and I'm glad it's not me.

    In an ideal world, I'd like someone like Tom Friedman (NYT) to be making decisions about places and situations like this!

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  4. Nice job Rebecca. What a difficult subject to tackle. And I agree with you, but it is just some instinct of mine, not an educated position.

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  5. First I would say we should stop talking about "winning in Afghanistan." If by winning we mean creating a country that resembles what we think we have here - we don't have enough time, money, personnel or patience to do that.

    Then I think we should be more forthright in talking about what is important to us and necessary and, that is, assuring that Pakistan doesn't deliberately or accidentally put their nuclear weapons into play.

    How we do that is beyond my ability to understand, but we should at least be discussing that issue rather than how many more troops and how many more of our dollars and young peoples lives we want to commit to a "fool's errand."

    So, yes we need to get out of Afghanistan not because of the corruption present there and most other countries, but because we have little or nothing to gain from staying there and lots, lots to lose.

    Veteran's Day brought much of this to mind and made me profoundly sad to think how easily we send our young people to battles and death for foolhardy and just plain wrong reasons.

    My son in law is a social worker at the VA. He worked for the past 5 years with returning Iraqi vets and helping them deal with the trauma they are left with. Now he is working with a program to help homeless Vets find homes, jobs and some measure of self esteem. We are wasting our young people's lives.

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  6. My feeling has ALWAYS been that this is another fools errand like Vietnam!. No matter the administration- Elephants or Donkeys- they have weird ideas that the US should be the " world's policemen".

    I am tired of sending our soldiers to all areas of the world to "police" nations that have been fighting internally/externally long before we became a FREE COUNTRY.

    I know that they will revert( not far to go) to their old habits of killing each other and any who disagree with their convoluted ideas.

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  7. Re Afghanistan, I think you are right on the money. I have given this a lot of thought over the past few months and my feelings have shifted quite a bit.

    Several months ago I thought our presence in Afghanistan would help rebuild our very tenuous situation in Pakistan – where my real concerns lie. But my calculus has changed a lot since then. I think trying to stabilize Afghanistan is a ten-year, trillion dollar effort with only a small chance of success (however loosely that might be defined).

    I thought the strongest argument for staying and increasing military resources was to put increased pressure on both al Qaeda and the Taliban lodged in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province. But as you suggest, I now think that is fool’s gold. It may even cause more damage to our relationship with Pakistan.

    I heard Seymour Hersh speak a couple of weeks ago at Duke and he gave a very pessimist outlook. This week even our ambassador to Afghanistan warned against a troop buildup – and he’s a retired general and former commander of our troops in Afghanistan.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fg-obama-afghan12-2009nov12,0,2561752.story

    The time to have acted decisively was in 2001 and 2002 when we had al Qaeda on the run. Now they are so dispersed that they can pack up and move almost anywhere. Moreover, Afghanistan is not really a country as we would define one. It’s much more a collection of tribes that don’t want a strong central government.

    Karzai is a corrupt, weak politician with a corrupt government, so we don’t even have a strong local partner. We simply can’t afford the bloodshed and the cost to continue. We need to end this as quickly and as responsibly as we can. Which probably means leaving a number of special ops teams to provide reconnaissance for drone missiles and some folks to train the Afghan military.

    If Obama doesn’t get out now, it will become his Vietnam with similar consequences. How’s that for a cheery note!

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  8. Had we pulled out of Vietnam when it was clear - even to those in command - that we were likely to lose I would still have my friend Jim Pace with whom to visit and have a beer now and then. As it happened, the wiry red-haired halfback who chose to fly helicopters in the service of his country was shot out of the sky within weeks of his arrival in Saigon. We need not lose any more lives to this adventure in Afghanistan, and I thank you for making the case so cogently.

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  9. Rebecca,The very good news is that this is not my decision or your decision. It is a true conundrum, a true Gordian knot. I know a lot about this very difficult situation in Afghan, and , for the United States, suffice it to say there is no perfect solution. I am pleased the President is taking sufficient time consulting with all the interested parties, both domestic and foreign, before he makes his decision. Let us pray he is guided by our Lord, because it is an enormous decision. If we were to decide to stay it could mean a serious commitment of our strategic and tactical military, diplomatic, civil, and economic resources for a generation.Personally, I believe it would be preferable if we were retain a hunker down fortress strategy, train the Afghans to fight their own battles,keep our troopers out of the southern afghan poppy fields, get them out of the outposts far from central bases, carefully identify and eliminate the leaders and main training bases of Queda and their Taliban allied chiefs using Satelites, Drones, guided missiles, and earth quake bombs.We have to know our real enemy, and then target that enemy.The Afghan and Northwest Pakistan is a loose collection of feudal mountain tribes led by absolutely feudal tribal chiefs, warlords, all male, mostly Muslim, Shia or Sunni, including some Wahhabi influenc since 1985. We are viewed as white, western, Christian imperialistic invadors. No one has conquered these Afghan tribal chieftains since the time of Alexander. They like killing each other for sport. Our allied troops, being generally European, and American, are perceived by them as Christian Crusaders. Our presence has united normally warring interests against us, the common foe. On the other hand we were attacked in New York and Washington by Osama Bin Laden and his Wahhabi fanatic Mujahadin. Now they are sheltered and partnering with equally dedicated Taliban fanatics.These are successors to the late 19th Century mountain Hassasin, so we have to use our brains, our very advanced identify and destroy weapons to destroy our true enemies, or in a few years they will be back blowing up people and facilities in Europe, Russia, China, and the United States, as well as in Iran, the Gulf States, Pakistan and India. You see, these are seriously insane fanatics who hate us, our freedoms, our democracy, our morality, women's rights especially. They are deeply committed "True Believers", cockroaches who will not compromise, so it is them or us. I just do not believe we have a chance if we choose to fight them on their turf using old style hand to hand tactics. In my opinion we should hit them at night with drones and infrared until they see the wisdom of finding another way to live. I am just telling it like it really is. Collateral damage is inevitable if we are to eliminate the leaders.Bill Harrison

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  10. Rebecca, you have distilled this horror into a cogent narrative. If my memory serves me correctly, we could have captured Osama Bin Ladin and ended this travesty in December, 2001.

    But, if the "word on the street" is correct, Bush's team stopped the action at Tora Bora leaving us with this debacle in Afghanistan.

    Stop this madness. We should pull out now. I agree with prior posts that compare Afghanistan to Viet Nam.

    No more deaths. No more soldiers having to absorb the anguish of seeing their buddies killed, helicopters crashing, Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome. Let's get out!!! NOW.

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  11. Very well said, Rebecca. I have been reading "3 Cups of Tea", which is making me aware of just how very different the culture is over there and how rugged the landscape.

    The book describes how one man, Greg Mortensen, helped the Afghan people to build schools, job centers for women,and other facilities in the mountainous area along the Afghan/Pakistan border. It was so complicated and difficult for him to get people to trust him enough to do honest business with him, even doing humanitarian work.

    Waging a war in these kinds of circumstances seems impossible and a horrible waste. The more we try, the more they unite against us and the more enemies we create.

    I wish we could "wage peace" by helping them build roads, schools, etc. as Mortensen did. Of course, the Taliban would not welcome that kind of effort either, but maybe the more moderate people would appreciate it and would be less likely to become Taliban or join Al Queda.

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  12. Hey Rebecca

    There is no good answer. Any choice is a looser in many ways. But I too come down on the side of withdrawal.

    I understand the view that it is better to fight in Afganistan rather than in the US proper. Oh if it were so easy.

    Afganistan is a very different culture and different in its development. If we are to be guided by the notion of "First Do No Harm", then we must back off from what we are currently doing.

    Warm regards

    Ken

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  13. I agree completely that it is futile-there is no "good" decision Obama can make. He could send in sniper teams if we only knew who to shoot--but we don't. Pulling out in some dignified and responsible way is the best among very bad choices.

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  14. I liked your take on Afghanistan and I agree with you. Of course, I'm a pacifist and believe the great challenge of our time is to figure out how to share the planet without killing one another. But I also believe that the Taliban and al-Qaeda are not one and the same. Both extreme, yes, but the former does not pose much of a threat to U.S. citizens. After all, we have known for many years that the real backing of al-Qaeda is from Saudi Arabia and those tribal leaders in Pakistan. Don't get me started...I also find it so ironic that we dumped billions of dollars into Vietnam in order to prevent it from going communist and now that it is communist they are a great trading partner. China? Communist country with terrible human rights record. And our greatest trading partner. Pardon me for not trusting our government's motives in all of this.

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  15. I agree with what you wrote. It is hard to imagine any other end to a war that has already been going on closer to ten years than five years. Too many men and women lost and a country that doesn't want us there. It will be interesting to see Obama's decision on the war. He should take his time because there is no easy answer with critics on each side ready to comment.

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  16. Howard Klein KelloggNovember 14, 2009 at 12:20 PM

    I'm now looking at an old book still stained with the red dust of the Mekong Delta and first read when sitting on a bunker outside Bo Duc.
    The Warriors: Reflections on Men in Battle by J. Glenn Gray, seemed
    a bit academic in 1969 to a young grunt in the 5th Brigade of The
    First Calvary.
    How could Homer say, in a quote from The Iliad, "Men grow tired of
    sleep, love and song sooner than of war." ?
    But what is not apparent to those either not old enough to know
    or lacking insight into human nature, is this frightening aspect of
    how it is that ranks can be so quickly filled with willing young men
    by leaders charged with the order of battle in a righteous cause.

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  17. Good post, Rebecca. Though highly opinionated on many subjects of which I know little I have nothing to offer on this one. What's the dry, dusty mountainous equivalent of "quagmire"?

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  18. We are on the same wavelength here. Obama’s slow deliberate response to the demand for more troops is a hopeful sign. He seems to understand that a president cannot simply render an opinion (or consult his gut) and say, “make it so.” If there is to be a 180-degree turn in Afghanistan Obama will have to lead the Nation through an exercise of political theater. I believe we have been seeing this for the last few weeks. Visits to military bases (not just the Texas bit) observing the returning dead – the speech in Alaska – numerous consultations -- demonstrate a deep thoughtful scrutiny of military culture and power.

    My hope is that the administration is questioning our goals in Afghanistan. There are signs that new ideas are loose within our State Department. Namely, that we have been wrong in assuming that proper outcomes involve the fabrication of a national state for Afghanistan. The most compelling notion I’ve heard is that we must understand that the cohesive political forces in that country are not nationalism or even tribalism – but “valley-ism.”

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  19. Thanks to all of you brave souls who walked into these murky waters with me. I'm just a regular person with no more insight than what I can glean from the media, including those pundits whose perspective I respect, plus some basic knowledge of history. Thanks for further enlightening me -- and us -- with your comments. It looks like key decisions will soon be made, especially whether Obama will turn Afghanistan into his own little war with an escalation of troops, the way Johnson did with Vietnam. We'll see in the weeks to come. To be continued...

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  20. Suffice it to say that I concur with your very clear prescription, though I am disappointed that it took Obama this long to challenge the assumptions he has had about our ability to achieve sustainable results in Afghanistan. He likes to please every one and therefore may not go for the Exit sign with dispatch…

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  21. I'm awestruck by just how eerily close we're coming to duplicating the strategies that failed in Vietnam a.) troop buildup b.) hearts and minds. We shouldn't wonder why Afghans will fight for their homeland; we'd fight, right?"

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  22. My instincts tell me that the people of that region have a sort of savvy that we can't comprehend with our intellectual outlook. They understand survival.

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  23. Your article is excellent. I agree with all of it. We are wasting so many precious lives and tons of money for an unwinnable war. Instead we should help rebuild the country, no strings attached and let the Afghans decide for themselves and fight their internal wars on their own.

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  24. I'm not too objective on this subject: I totally agree. This is a hopeless quagmire that will never see a "win." Everybody out of the pool and come home.

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  25. Excellent posting and comments. I just forwarded the link to VP Biden with this comment:

    If you could find the time to read or have staff read this blog entry and especially the comments that follow, it would be appreciated - and an excellent use of their time.

    We are on the edge, it would seem, of making another historic error of judgement in the region that will be paid for with the blood and lives of thousands of young patriots. And for no good cause.

    Thank you for your time.

    http://www.rebeccaclayhaynes.blogspot.com/

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  26. Randy Voller, Mayor, Pittsboro, NCNovember 16, 2009 at 7:58 AM

    After 9/11 I argued verbally and in writing that an invasion of Central Asia was the wrong reaction. I referred to it as the "Fantasia" affect. If you have seen the old film you will recall the apprentice for the wizard, Micky Mouse, attempts to use his master's magic to do chores and keeps creating broomsticks that he cannot control. (When he splits one in half two more rise.)

    In the present case of overseas misadventure the more aggression we utilize the more terrorists we create now and presumably will create well into the future.

    It seems we should consider engaging with commerce, logic and culture and withdraw the weapons. For instance it would be far cheaper to buy all of the poppy crop then to support financially and emotionally an army in an unwinnable theater of war.

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  27. Agreed - we never should go to war with Afghanistan, but I think that really isn't the point. We are suppose to be going after the Taliban and Al Queda terrorist camps (and if lucky enough to capture Bin Laden) in retaliation for 9-11. But just like Vietnam (thanks to JFK and LBJ) - this will probably turn into a never ending police action. Ron Paul (the only true, republican conservative) has it right - "it took us only one day to get into this mess, it should take us only one day to get out of it." Liberal fascism is slowly gaining control of this country as our Bill of Rights and even basic private property rights are being eroded - just look at the proposed health care plan and this proposed "invasion" of Afghanistan. Wasn't the message of 13 dead American soldiers last week at Ft. Hood sent by a self-proclaimed, insider Islamic terrorist enough to reveal the truth? At least with Iraq, oil was the primary excuse - Afghanistan is just another hornet's nest or job stimulus plan.

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  28. A few thoughts:

    1. This was a more legitimate war than Iraq, the Afgani gov't harbored the terrorists who attacked us on 9.11. They refused to bring them to justice. We were perfectly justified in going to get them, and taking out the gov't.

    2. My wife's cousin was the XO of the ship that launched the first war shots of this war

    3. We have had several Navy and Marine cousins fight in the conflict

    4. A childhood friend of mine, serving in the CIA, was killed in Pakistan investigating the Taliban. I attended his funeral in March of '08

    5. Where we have failed the Afghani people is in NOT setting up a strong Military Gov't under the US General in command. We have allowed them to be improperly governed.

    6. This is Obama's "good" war. His ego is too involved to allow him to do anything but expand the war. He has one slight chance: throw the current president under the bus for being "corrupt" and just leave.

    This will all end in tears. Bush had no plan to govern either Iraq or Afghanistan, hence the chaos. Obama has declared this the "good" and "just" war. Good luck getting him out of those rhetorical flourishes...

    By the way, life under communism was hardly good for the people of Vietnam. Regardless of our war aims, the communists established a brutal gov't-----not very different than Mao or Stalin.

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  29. I heard recently that there is no right answer to Afghanistan and when I think about it, I come to a real roadblock. I think he should pull out slowly or "draw down" because this does feel like another one we just can't win. And here we are supporting another corrupt regime. I feel awful about this in so many ways. The Taliban are monsters. I think Obama and his team are looking for a way to win over the people if at all possible.

    Pulling out will hurt the credibility of the U.S. and it will actually hurt Obama and the Dems dreadfully politically here in the U.S. Many in this country think we must defeat radical Islam all around the globe. This country also sees war in the same way we see sports, they just want the home team to win. These same people have no regard for history. Vietnam put a divide in this country which is still quite a prominent part of the political landscape. I have no inkling of how we should proceed but it seems obvious that pursuing this war would be a disaster for us.

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  30. I used to think we should pull out (and still pretty much do), but when I read A Thousand Splendid Suns recently, the plight of women in Afghanistan was brought to the forefront of my attention, and I hate to think what will happen to them if/when we go home. So now I'm quite conflicted. I recognize that helping the Afghan women is not our ... Read Morecountry's "job" or responsibility, but on the other hand, as a person of faith, I think it's morally wrong to just abandon them and ignore the consequences. And yes, I know that the plight of women in many countries is terrible, but we don't (and shouldn't) send our troops in to "fix" it. Turning a blind eye to moral wrongs isn't right either, though. See? I told you I'm conflicted!

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  31. I am not sure if it is quite that simple. Portraying it as a cartoon, fool's errand, or movie maybe an apt metaphor, but it doesn't address the balance of power, our strategic position, or our role as a leader of the free world.

    I think there are significant differences between Iraq and Afghanistan. Similarly, I think our role in Pakistan is important too. Much as it maybe hard to swallow we have supported the current leader in Pakistan and he has been leading a fight now to dismantle the Taliban and we can't all of a sudden say no we are going to pull out of Afghanistan and end our commitment to this part of the world.

    I am so impressed with the work of Greg Mortnsen and the Central Asia Institute. I wish we could build more schools and end the violence there. Yet, I think we need to move thoughtfully and honor our commitments. I wish there was an easy answer. Much as I don't like it I still think there is a need for a military presence there.

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  32. Harry E. Strider . . . "Hes"November 16, 2009 at 12:17 PM

    I try avoid these topics in my day to day. It makes me feel very helpless and cloudy.
    I do have to say you still seem to have a great command over this English language of ours!
    You are an artist.

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  33. I agree with all you said…

    I think we should take a fair amount of the money we would otherwise spend on military means and out it into USAID for agri reform…

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  34. Beautifully said. We don't need to be there, but getting out will not be graceful. The issues there are not ours and we can't solve them with the blood of our own soldiers. Withdrawal does seem to be the best option, but to many, that would be considered a failure, as if what we have accomplished has been a success.

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  35. I wish I had something more to add to your observations, for the sake of continuing the dialogue, but I think you've hit it right on the head. I couldn't agree more with your contentions.

    I do think, however, that even though an obvious conclusion to our situation, pulling out of Afghanistan is much easier said than done with this country's history of a serious military industrial complex. I hope Obama can stand up to its upholders and break the stranglehold it maintains over this country's conscience and common sense.

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  36. I fully agree with you. There is noway US can set things right in Afghanistan. It will continue tobe in the middle ages, if not the stone age.

    US interest in muslim countries was mainly on account of oil. There is no oil in Afghanistan either. Only opium which hits the streets of New York as smack and finances the Taliban.

    Obama is a sensible President. Just wait and see his next move in a couple of months may be.

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